Thoughts on “AI 2027”

  1. Home page: https://ai-2027.com/

  2. Authors addressing some critique, explaining “Why America Wins(Ed.: Would that even matter much in an end-game between AI and humans? I doubt it. Rather just a bias.)

  3. A YouTube video summary: AI 2027: A Realistic Scenario of AI Takeover

My take:

  • It’s good and important to think about AI, the use/misuse/abuse of AI, scenarios why, how and when AI could take over power (and obviously: How to prevent this).
  • I’m astonished that one can spot quite a few biases (e.g. the good old USA vs. China power struggle, good government vs. bad private companies, perceived technical or intellectual superiority) and seemingly simplistic assumptions (i.e. that the further AI development is merely a matter of compute, ruling out fundamental theoretical and practical limitations on the path to AGI, or even some obvious potential geopolitical events and decisions; some of which have already manifested -> e.g. student visas, wars). Sure, the scenarios have to be largely based on known knowns, but they should account more for known unknowns and the possibility of unknown unknowns.
  • Is AGI achievable in the next 5 years? I doubt it, mainly due to – still valid – fundamental theoretical and practical constraints of the prevalent approach to achieving AGI using LLMs, like the symbol grounding problem. LLMs depend on symbols (tokens) – digitally sharply defined. But the analogue world is exactly the opposite: There are no symbols (except those introduced by living beings, i.e. humans, animals).
    Then again, I doubt this matters much in the described scenarios, as the states described in these scenarios are, because of the widespread digitisation, probably achievable with mere control over the digital world. To achieve this in a digital world, true (universal) AGI isn’t required; it’s sufficient to achieve AI that is close enough to “digital AGI” to convince humans that digital AGI has been achieved (as we’re so dependent on the digital world already).
    This assumption is both frightening and reassuring: On one hand, it makes far less sensational, but equally dangerous scenarios of AI (partial) dominance more likely; on the other hand, it opens up a possible ‘escape route’ for humanity: we must “simply” ensure that the analogue world always retains the upper hand and that we could exploit this in our favour in a final battle against AI if necessary.
  • That said, we should urgently look to make our analogue supply and communication networks more resilient, and ironically not via digitalisation as we have done so far. Rather, it is precisely through the deliberate, explicit renunciation of digitalisation.
    In my worst-case scenario, we would thus have to assume that an AI – even one lacking true/universal AGI – could take over the digital world (and therefore also many highly powerful and dangerous interfaces to the analogue world -> weapon control systems, bio-labs, food chain, water supply systems, power systems, hardware/robot/clone factories, air control, traffic lights, navigation systems, satellites, emergency networks, life-saving medical devices, subtle but decisive influence over political decisions and communication, etc.), but not a purely analogue world (thanks to the assumed lack of universal AGI).
  • Once true, universal AGI has been achieved, it’s probably “game over”, unless humanity could somehow convince the AGI of a lasting, sustainable win-win deal (but in the end, the fight for resources and power will be real).

 

 

Nomad Network – Communicate Freely

Off-grid, resilient mesh communication with strong encryption, forward secrecy and extreme privacy.

Nomad Network allows you to build private and resilient communications platforms that are in complete control and ownership of the people that use them. No signups, no agreements, no handover of any data, no permissions and gatekeepers.

https://github.com/markqvist/NomadNet

Information is the basis of society in the digital world.
Freedom of expression/speech and free access to information are indispensable prerequisites for democracy.

Sadly, there are misleading and dubious organisations, lobbyists, parties, secret services, legislative and executive bodies that work against these liberal, enlightened and humanitarian values and demand or advocate censorship, online and offline.
This is a big threat for civil society – you and me, all of us.

And this is what makes projects like NomadNet important and valuable.

Stand up for freedom of expression/free speech and fight censorship!

(And as always, please note the disclaimer: All software and hardware can have security bugs).

#32c3 presentations to watch (note to self)

Overview of recorded presentations:

https://media.ccc.de/b/congress/2015

My list of particularly interesting presentations (mostly for myself – disclaimer: I haven’t watched all of these presentations yet as I didn’t make it to Hamburg this year):

Aug 29, 2008: BlogCamp Switzerland 3.0 in Zurich

Note that this year’s Swiss BlogCamp, the BlogCamp Switzerland 3.0, will take place on the same date (August 29, 2008) as the Tag der Informatik (informatica08) and the tweakGrill, and at the same location (Technopark in Zurich), too! Of course, this is no coincidence :) No matter whether you’re a blogger or not (or plan to be, have been, are interested in the Swiss blogging scene, the web 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, whatever etc. ;): Be there, I’m sure it will be an interesting event, again! (And attending the “Tag der Informatik” is a point of honor anyway :)

(Bloggy Friday will start at 8 PM, guess where ;)

BlogCamp Switzerland 3.0

[UPDATE 20080802: I probably can’t be there due to military service :( At rather short notice as they managed to send the march order to an address that doesn’t exist. No comment.]

August 29, 2008: tweakGrill @ informatica08

The innovative guys from tweakfest.ch will present what they call The first digital BBQ in Switzerland, aka the tweakGrill. It will take place on August 29, 2008, starting at 6 PM on the Turbinenplatz (that’s Zurich’s biggest place (*cough*) right in front of the Technopark building (which some call the “Swiss Silicon Valley” ;) in Zurich-West/entertainment).

According to the newsletter they’ll have several multimedia performances, serve sausages from USB-Grills (I wonder how that will scale ;) and open source beer brought to you by [project 21].

tweakfest group on Facebook

Flyer (PDF)

More information in German in this post on the tweakfest home page..

[UPDATE 20080802: I probably can’t be there due to military service :( At rather short notice as they managed to send the march order to an address that doesn’t exist. No comment.]

BlogCampSwitzerland’07

Back home from a (too) short visit to the BlogCampSwitzerland. Unfortunately, I missed the morning sessions as I was partying in the future yesterday evening till early today ;). Nonetheless I enjoyed attending a couple of sessions and meeting other ppl living in and around the Swiss blogosphere.

I don’t have the time at the moment, but will come up with some more comments later..

KURSBUCH Glockenstrauch by Salome Rebekka In-Albon

Yesterday evening reminded me of how multifarious life is – much more than just facts and figures we tend to be snowed under with – and the importance and elegance of art. Splendid finish and promising beginning. A milestone. A rarity so far, watch out for the “KURSBUCH Glockenstrauch” by Salome Rebekka In-Albon:

Von den Wellen hin und her geschmissen schaukelte ich im Meer, von Land weit und breit keine Spur. Nicht mit einem Horn, nicht mit einer Leuchtpistole, mit einem leisen Wort nur, war ich schlagartig umgeben von Menschen. An Ort und Stelle, jawohl, mitten auf dem Meer, zimmerten sie in geschickter Teamarbeit ein solides Schiff. Durch Böen, begleitet von Wolkenbrüchen, von Sonnenstrahlen, mal Tiefgang, mal weniger, volle Kraft voraus, grobe und glatte See, aber zielstrebig dem Land entgegen. Zeit genug, ein Kursbuch zu führen.

As a spark, I’m proud of and thankful for being part of this great work and endeavor. Salutations to the “crew” and associates:

Salome (The captain), Johanna, Clemens, Megy, Markus, Toni, Max, Yvonne, Nora, Nicolas, Gertrud, Heidi, Magdalena and all those who couldn’t be there.

Spring, a wonderful time for art to blossom.